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Three scenarios for the sovereign credit outlook have emerged from the uncertainty over US trade policy – “tariff-light”, trade war, or a wider economic and financial crisis including introduction of capital controls.

The benchmark rate on the deposit facility has been reduced 2.25% from 2.5%, down from a high of 4% toward the middle of 2023, and is the seventh cut in a year.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter point to offset the blow from tariffs, drawing attention from President Trump, who urged the Federal Reserve to follow suit. The euro weakened further against the dollar after the announcement.

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Bitcoin nudged back toward the $85,000 mark on Thursday.

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After quite an active week of British data, the pound has generally held its strength or gained in various pairs.

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The lowest annual rates of inflation were registered in France, Denmark and Luxembourg, and the highest annual rates were in Romania, Hungary and Poland.

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Gold prices hit fresh highs, as uncertainty around US president Donald Trump's tariffs continued to buoy demand.

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Stock markets have seen big swings this week, with a number of tariff announcements driving volatility.

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The dollar is under pressure as President Trump's tariff strategy erodes global investors' confidence in American assets. China's decision to raise tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% on Friday sparked a new wave of selling. "The question of a potential dollar confidence crisis has now been definitively answered—we are experiencing one in full force," wrote ING's Francesco Pesole.

The partial suspension of U.S. tariffs “remains fragile,” and the European Union must continue to prepare counter-measures to defend itself, French President Emmanuel Macron said Friday. While the pause opens a door for talks, Macron said in a post on X, it also continues “uncertainty for businesses on both sides of the Atlantic” and leaves intact the 25% tariffs on steel and cars, and 10% tariffs on other goods.

The European Union will suspend its first wave of retaliatory duties against the U.S. for 90 days to focus on negotiations, after the Trump administration paused some global tariffs, a top EU official said.

The balance of risks for the global credit outlook remains negative. The United States government’s wide-ranging new import tariffs have exacerbated global economic and financial vulnerabilities.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she welcomes President Trump’s decision to pause some tariffs, calling it an important step toward stabilizing the global economy. The move came after European Union member states approved a plan on Wednesday to retaliate against U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs with duties on about 21 billion euros worth of American products, equivalent to about $23 billion. “Clear, predictable conditions are essential for trade and supply chains to function,” von der Leyen said early Thursday.

The European Union is moving ahead with imposing tariffs on a wide range of American products—including chewing gum, motorcycles and peanut butter—in retaliation for U.S. steel and aluminum duties. The tariffs target about 21 billion euros, or roughly $23 billion, of U.

The European Union’s executive arm is scrambling to assemble a package that will respond to President Trump’s 20% across-the-board tariffs and automotive duties. The European Commission could present EU member states with a plan as soon as next week, a spokesman said. States will vote Wednesday on a first phase of retaliation, in response to earlier U.S. metals tariffs, that involves duties on U.S. goods including boats, peanut butter and motorcycles.

A top European Union official said the bloc offered “zero-for-zero” tariffs for industrial goods during trade discussions with U.S. officials. “We stand ready to negotiate with the U.S.,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. Von der Leyen added the EU prefers a negotiated solution but is also prepared to respond to U.S. tariffs with countermeasures.

The European Union is prepared to retaliate against the 20% tariff that its faces from the U.S. if a compromised settlement can’t be reached, Miguel Berger, Germany’s ambassador to the U.K., said in an interview with Sky News on Sunday. Berger described the planned tariffs as “the biggest assault we have seen since the end of the second world war on global trade” but said that negotiation is preferable to the riskier strategy of initiating a trade war. “If we would take counter measures we would hurt our automotive industry twice,” Berger said.

France’s finance minister said the European Union shouldn’t respond to President Trump's reciprocal tariffs with similar countermeasures as it would hurt Europe’s economy and consumers. "We are working on a package of responses that can go beyond tariffs to bring the U.S. to the negotiating table and reach a balanced agreement," Éric Lombard said in a TV interview on Friday. "If we do like the U.S., if we apply tariffs to all American imports, we will also have a negative effect in Europe," he added.

President Trump’s tariff announcement was “inflation day,” said Germany's economics minister, Robert Habeck, predicting the measures would cause economic damage to both the U.S. and its trading partners. Habeck, whose party won’t participate in the upcoming coalition led by conservative politician Friedrich Merz, called for negotiations between the U.S. and the European Commission, which sets trade policy for the European Union.

The dollar fell sharply on Thursday, as investors bet President Trump's tariffs will blow back on the U.S. economy. The WSJ Dollar Index fell about 1.5% to its lowest level since mid-October. The Canadian dollar hit a nearly 4-month high.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen vowed to respond to President Trump’s latest tariffs, and called them “a major blow to the world economy” that would have dire consequences. The president of the European Union's executive arm said the bloc is ready to respond, with a measure to address the steel tariffs currently being finalized, and a second response also in the works.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned the Trump administration's tariffs will have a negative economic impact "the world over." "It will not be good for the global economy, and it will not be good for those who inflict the rates, or those who retaliate," she said in an interview with Ireland's Newstalk on Wednesday. Lagarde has warned previously about potential negative effects of tariffs on growth and inflation.

Germany’s ample fiscal space to finance higher defence spending by issuing debt contrasts with the more constrained public finances in France and the United Kingdom.

The European Union may delay its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. until mid-April to allow more time for negotiations with the Trump administration, a senior official said Thursday. The bloc last week said it plans tariffs of up to 50% on a range of U.S. products in response to U.S. levies on global steel and aluminum imports. The EU tariffs were initially planned to take effect in two phases.

The U.S. dollar has been appreciating almost relentlessly since the end of September.

Investing.com-- Australia’s trade balance rose more than expected in October after hitting a four-year low in the prior month, as commodity exports rose amid improving economic conditions and stimulus measures in top trading partner China.

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies moved little on Monday as traders digested middling cues from China on its plans for fiscal stimulus, while the yuan softened following weaker-than-expected inflation data.

The Aussie dollar continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as the markets are trying to see what is going on which the overall risk appetite, and the global economy. Ultimately, this is a market that will be closely watched.

The Aussie dollar continues to see a lot of range bound trading, although the first day of the week is looking very positive. This is a market that has a massive ceiling above, and also a lot of questions about the overall global economy.

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the week, as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about whether or not the risk appetite is going to hold up, or if it is going to continue to dwindle.

The Australian dollar continues to go back and forth as we are trying to sort out which way the risk appetite is going. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to commodities and Asia, and as such will be highly levered to risk-taking. On the other side

The Aussie dollar continues to chop back and forth as we are trying to determine what’s going on in Asia, the commodity markets, risk appetite, and perhaps even geopolitics. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is considered to be a “risk on currency”, while the US dollar is considered

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range on Thursday, while the dollar firmed as a strong reading on U.S. consumer inflation dashed hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a wide margin.

The Aussie dollar has been somewhat sideways for the last few days, as we are sitting on the previous support area that traders have been paying such close attention yet again. This is a market that will continue to see a lot of questions asked of risk appetite.

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies gained ground on Wednesday as the dollar retreated in the wake of a fiery U.S. presidential debate, with focus turning to key upcoming inflation data due later in the day.

The Aussie dollar continues to see a lot of sideways action, as the market is trying to sort out whether or not the risk appetite is going to give the Aussie any directionality going forward as there are some many questions about the global economy, and more specifically, the Asian

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies moved little on Tuesday, while the dollar crept higher in anticipation of key inflation data that is likely to factor into the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

The Aussie dollar is likely to see a lot of noisy trading going forward, as the market will have to watch the overall global growth situation, and the economic issues coming out of Asia. Ultimately, as we are going to continue to see questions asked of these things, the Aussie

The past week has been noisy for the Aussie dollar, as we are in the same range we have been in for some time. Furthermore, this is a market that will continue to pay close attention to the idea of risk appetite and commodity demand.

The Aussie dollar continues to see a lot of noisy behavior on Friday, as the market continues to see a lot of questions asked about risk appetite. Ultimately, this is a currency that is highly sensitive to the global growth situation.

The Aussie dollar has stabilized a bit over the last 48 hours, as we are trying to sort out the risk appetite of traders and markets in general. Remember, this is a market that will continue to look towards the overall attitude of people to get an idea of where

The Australian dollar has stabilized a bit in the early hours on Wednesday, as traders are trying to sort out what it is that they believe about the Asian economy. After all, we have seen Chinese demand numbers drop recently, and this has a direct correlation to Australian economic performance.

The Aussie dollar pulled back a bit in the early hours of Tuesday, as we have gotten a bit too far stretched right away. The market is going to continue to look to the idea of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and what happens next.

The Aussie dollar has been somewhat quiet during the Monday session, which makes sense, as the Americans and Canadians are away for the Labor Day holiday. Furthermore, the pair is a bit stretched at this juncture, so a breather or sorts is probably needed for this market.